Thailand Faces Tourism Slowdown as Analysts Forecast 9.2% Drop in Arrivals

Thailand is gradually entering its low tourism season, and early forecasts suggest a noticeable, though not dramatic, decline in visitor arrivals.

Analysts from Kasikornbank estimate that international arrivals between April and June 2026 will reach approximately 6.49 million, marking a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% compared to the same period in 2025. This projection aligns with earlier expectations from the Ministry of Tourism and the Tourism Authority of Thailand, both of which anticipated a drop of around 10%.

Despite the decline, analysts describe the outlook as relatively stable given broader global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions. In this context, a single-digit contraction is viewed as a manageable scenario.

Key downward pressures include:

• Risks of aviation fuel shortages in certain regions

• Rising fuel costs, increasing airline operating expenses

• Higher airfares affecting travel demand

• A decline in traveler confidence

At the same time, several factors are helping to cushion the impact.

Supporting trends include:

• Continued growth in arrivals from Asia-Pacific markets, particularly China and India

• Thailand’s increasing appeal as an alternative destination to the Middle East, both for tourism and temporary relocation

Data compiled by Kasikornbank highlights how global travel patterns have already shifted amid tensions in the Middle East. Some regions have seen declines, while others show growth:

• Africa: −6.3% year-on-year

• Middle East: −33.3%

• Oceania: +8.6%

• Americas: −2.1%

• South Asia: +8.5%

• ASEAN: −3.8%

• East Asia: +16.1%

• Europe: −4.2%

At the time of reporting, Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism had not yet released data for the third week of April. However, operational indicators from Phuket International Airport suggest stability in flight activity. Daily traffic has remained consistent with early April levels, averaging between 280 and 295 arrivals and departures, only dipping below 280 on Sunday, April 19.

This steady flight volume indicates that while demand may be softening, the overall tourism infrastructure remains active as Thailand transitions into the quieter season.