Thailand Exports Hit Record High as AI Boom Fuels Growth

Thailand’s export sector continues to outperform expectations, reaching new historic highs even as the country’s tourism industry struggles to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. While tourism remains below its former peak, exports are acting as the primary engine of economic growth.

According to data released by the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), March marked a record-breaking month, with exports totaling $35.157 billion. This represents an 18.7% year-on-year increase and extends the streak to 21 consecutive months of growth. For the first quarter of 2026, exports reached $98.17 billion, up 17.6% compared to the same period last year. As a result, the full-year export growth forecast has been revised upward to 6.2%.

Notably, this record was achieved amid global instability, including escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and rising oil prices—all of which have increased production and logistics costs.

The main drivers behind the export surge are electronics and electrical equipment, fueled by rising global demand for AI-related infrastructure such as data centers. Additional short-term support has come from the easing of certain U.S. tariff restrictions. Agricultural and food exports have also contributed, with strong performance in products like durians, mangosteens, pork, and animal feed.

Industrial exports saw particularly strong gains, rising 21.4% in March and 21.3% over the quarter. Electronics and computer-related components led the growth, with increases ranging from around 30% in transformers and related parts to as high as 116.6% in mobile phones and their components. Meanwhile, the automotive sector experienced only a modest decline of 3.5%.

Agricultural exports showed mixed results. While March recorded a slight increase of 1.1%, the overall quarterly figure declined by 2.1%. Performance varied widely across categories: mangosteen exports surged by 491%, and oils rose by 251%, while meat exports declined by between 3% and 22%.

Looking ahead, TPSO expects export growth to continue throughout 2026, supported by the global shift toward AI-enabled consumer electronics and the broader adoption of artificial intelligence in industry.

However, risks remain significant. Ongoing instability in key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supply chains and drive up energy costs, which in turn raises production expenses and weakens consumer demand in key trading partner countries. Potential new tariff measures from the United States also pose a threat.

Despite the strong export performance and improved outlook, Thailand’s overall economic growth projections remain cautious. The Ministry of Finance has revised its GDP forecast for 2026 down to 1.6%, compared to an earlier estimate of 2%. In 2025, the economy grew by 2.4%, already below the regional average.

One of the key factors weighing on the economy is the slow recovery of tourism. The government aims to return to the pre-pandemic level of 40 million international arrivals recorded in 2019. However, Thailand welcomed only 33 million visitors in 2025, and the current forecast for 2026 stands at 33.5 million.